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Supporting the tin price through purchases of physical metal and through many forward contracts on the London Metal Exchange (LME), together amounting to two-thirds of annual new production, the ITC influenced the market from 1982 until October 1985, when it suddenly announced itself unable to meet its financial and contractual commitments. The price collapsed 40 percent, the ITC's banks and brokers staggered under £300 million in losses from their extension of credit, the venerable LME suspended trading in tin and barely survived (Anderson and Gilbert, 1988).

To what extent did the ITC's activities consolidate trends that would have occurred regardless? It is clear that over 1979-1980 the price of silver behaved strangely and the Hunts held large positions. Nevertheless, are those two facts causally connected? Had late 1979 and early 1980 been marked by major oil finds outside the Middle East and by a thaw in the Cold War, would anyone have noticed the Hunts' large positions in silver? The flamboyant episodes of commodity prices also present difficulties for legal analysis.

When a commodity's price is close to its historical average, it might be because a manipulation kept it from being unusually low. Further complicating the consideration of the circumstantial evidence, a manipulation is an effect, not simply an act. 19 As the court decisions have emphasized, acts deemed manipulative in some contexts are unquestionably legitimate in others. Acts become manipulative by combining with other acts and by contributing to an artificial price. Thus, some judgment is required to detect a manipulation from circumstantial evidence.

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An essay on the monetary theory of distribution by Massimo Pivetti

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